ping is dictated a lot by hops. why not just run a traceroute to the server and see what your amount of hops is going to be. if you go anywhere over 10-15, expect some lag, depends on how easily you connect to a backbone of the net on each end. I've had crazy pathways to get to some servers before
vancouver, washington ->
seattle, washington ->
portland, oregon ->
los angeles, california
now why the hell didnt it just go south instead of north. its all about routing...